Eyes on Earl

[BuyLowSellHigh]

Heads up those living in northeast coastal areas, there may be a hurricane headed your way.  Earl is currently a Cat 4 storm and packing quite a punch.  The current forecast track keeps the center offshore, but sizable deviations and significant changes even in the last 24 hours for major storms are not uncommon (ex. Rita in TX in 2005).  If you live in a coastal area north of NC, I urge you to check the NHC site at least twice a day.  Here's a link if it's not one your your frequently visited sites:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Regardless of what anyone says, nobody beats the NHC ability to forecast these storms.  That said, a second great site for information is this one - scroll down on the homepage and you will see image links to the Skeetobite site that shows all the model predictions; the forums have a lot of good info by both pro and serious amateur meteorologists.
http://flhurricane.com/


From personal experience, you don't have to be within the immediate hurricane path to experience a significant amount of damage.  Watch the wind fields - trees going down wreak havoc on power lines.  When I lived in the eastern US some of the worst floods were caused by rains from tropical storms that moved inland, especially those that hits the mountains, then flooded the eastern areas as the water came downstream.  If Earl comes inland, keep an eye on the rainfall amounts to your west.

Just for grins I'll include this scare tactic.  The History Chanel, as part of their Mega Disaster series recently did a program on a hurricane hitting NYC.  It's short and maybe a bit overly dramatic, but I think it drives home the point about susceptibility.
http://www.history.com/videos/mega-disasters-new-york-city-hurricane#mega-disasters-new-york-city-hurricane

[classicrockgriller]

Some good info. Thanks!

[NePaSmoKer]

TY

Better bolt things down.

[classicrockgriller]

That thing is massive out there in the water.

[DTAggie]

Good info and BLSH being in Lake Jackson is used to these storms being unpredictable.

[ArnieM]

Thanks for the update Eric.  It looks like we might be on the western fringe of the storm.  Maybe I should see if I can get the generator started  :-\

[BuyLowSellHigh]

Just to put the accuracy of the forecast track into perspective, from not too distant personal experience ...

2005 - Rita forecast track in last 60 hours shifted about 150 miles east to the actual point of landfall, from Port Lavaca, TX to Port Arthur, TX.

2008 - Ike forecast track in the last 72 hours shifted about 300 miles east to the actual point of landfall, from between Brownsville and Corpus Christi to Galveston.

From the NHC, NOTE... ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

Note, that those are averages, meaning for everyone that is within 100 miles on a 4-day forecast there is one that is off by 300 miles for the same period.

Arnie, that generator thing is a monthly exercise here from May to November.  Ike missed us by about 50 miles and we were on the "clean side".  The whole region had widespread power failure. We weren't allowed in the area and there was no gas, food, ice, etc. due to power outages for about 5 days.  We were without power for 11 days total.  The generator made life possible.

[classicrockgriller]

As far up inland as I live, we had 105 mph winds and were with out electricity for 13 days.

I ran two generators and grilled everyday.

Lost 1/3 of my back deck and Master Bedroom Corner of the house and I considered my self lucky.

[BuyLowSellHigh]

A few things I have learned about living and dealing with hurricanes, and then I'll shut up ...

Because of the uncertainty, don't look at the forecast track, look at the cone.  See it as anywhere within the cone has an equal probability of being in the storms center path.

You must have a plan, and preferably a plan B as well (more on this below).

If you need to leave do so ~ 48 hours before the expected storm arrival and be prepared for a long, slow trip.  When we evacuated for Rita in 2005 the normally 3.5 hour drive to Austin took 16 hours, and there was no gas available enroute (all had been sold and supply trucks couldn't get to stations).

It doesn't take hurricane force winds to bring widespread damage; tropical storm force winds can rip up a lot of trees, and falling trees tend to take aim on any power lines and structures within their reach.

Leave nothing loose in your yard or around your house (grills, smokers, furniture, kids toys, lumber, flower pots, etc.).

The problem with "plans" is the combination of lead time needed and the uncertainty.  If you are going to leave ~ 48 hours in advance, then you need to have a destination plan at least 5 days in advance of the storms arrival.  When we evacuated in 2008 for Ike we we left ~ 36 hours before expected landfall and went north, got inland about 60 miles (Plan A).  That should have kept us on the clear by ~ 100 miles (home was supposed to be on the dirty side by about 50 miles).  As mother nature is a shifty lady, Ike moved further east and in the wee hours of the morning we watched as the eyewall passed about 10 miles to our east with winds of ~ 105 mph.  We got lucky, no damage and our immediate area by the Galleria in Houston kept power ( about 50 square blocks).  The main of Houston was without power for 3-7 days.  Imagine being in Houston without power (meaning AC, gas and no stores open) for 3-7 days.  Many surrounding areas  were worse.

DTAggie - were you here for Carla?

[BuyLowSellHigh]

Looking at the forecast this morning, things have shifted just a tad to the west.  About the eastern half of Long Island is now in the cone, and as best I can estimate the western edge of the cone is about 40 miles southeast of Bridgeport, CT.  The new interactive Cone/Track map lets you zoom right in and see it more clearly than the older large scale maps.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085754.shtml?gm_track#contents

As best I can determine Earl will be in the NY / CT area Thursday Friday evening, about 60 hrs from now (8 pm ET on Friday would be 00:00 on Saturday UTC).  That puts the uncertainty of the track at about +/- 100-150 miles. According to the latest Forecast Advisory from NHC, 50 kt winds (~57 mph) will extend 90 NM northwest and tropical storm force winds, 34 kts (39 mph) will extend 150-175 miles NW.

CRG was right, this is a BIG storm!

[ArnieM]

Thanks for the link Eric.  It's a good one.

We're a little NNW of Bridgeport CT. 

I haven't had the generator running in about three years.  Better get my A$$ in gear.

[deb415611]

Thanks for the link Eric.  It's a good one.

We're a little NNW of Bridgeport CT. 

I haven't had the generator running in about three years.  Better get my A$$ in gear.

You better because we don't have one and I might need to come visit ;D

I'm probably 20-25 miles from Arnie - in the northeast direction

[BuyLowSellHigh]

I just edited my previous post.  Had the day for the NE wrong, should be Friday evening, not Thursday evening.  The rest was right.

[hal4uk]

I watched Hugo track 2000 miles straight for Charleston harbor...
(My momma lived in Charleston at the time...)
For weeks, they kept saying "It will turn".

IT DIDN'T.
Awrighten.

[FLBentRider]

I watched Hugo track 2000 miles straight for Charleston harbor...
(My momma lived in Charleston at the time...)
For weeks, they kept saying "It will turn".

IT DIDN'T.
Awrighten.

I lived there at the time too.